OWSCI Water Demand Forceast Model

Version: 1.0, Date: 1/1/2009

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Water Demand Summary

Reporting Units:

	Base					Scenario
Year	Municipal	Domestic Well	Industrial	Agriculture	Total	Municipal	Domestic Well	Industrial	Agriculture	Total	Difference	Percent Change
2010	498,807,621	74,210,969	476,263,146	6,857,813,145	7,907,094,881	498,807,621	74,210,969	476,263,146	6,857,813,145	7,907,094,881	0	0%
2015	531,191,741	79,144,457	476,263,146	6,939,421,122	8,026,020,465	531,191,741	79,144,457	476,263,146	6,939,421,122	8,026,020,465	0	0%
2020	565,064,218	84,301,854	476,263,146	7,002,814,440	8,128,443,657	565,064,218	84,301,854	476,263,146	7,002,814,440	8,128,443,657	0	0%
2025	598,930,739	89,362,831	476,263,146	7,105,562,036	8,270,118,752	598,930,739	89,362,831	476,263,146	7,105,562,036	8,270,118,752	0	0%
2030	633,420,315	94,529,876	476,263,146	7,190,118,224	8,394,331,561	633,420,315	94,529,876	476,263,146	7,190,118,224	8,394,331,561	0	0%
2035	666,784,782	99,632,498	476,263,146	7,275,680,631	8,518,361,057	666,784,782	99,632,498	476,263,146	7,275,680,631	8,518,361,057	0	0%
2040	700,899,768	104,903,830	476,263,146	7,342,145,762	8,624,212,505	700,899,768	104,903,830	476,263,146	7,342,145,762	8,624,212,505	0	0%
2045	736,574,738	110,566,402	476,263,146	7,449,872,139	8,773,276,424	736,574,738	110,566,402	476,263,146	7,449,872,139	8,773,276,424	0	0%
2050	775,489,785	116,508,304	476,263,146	7,538,525,617	8,906,786,852	775,489,785	116,508,304	476,263,146	7,538,525,617	8,906,786,852	0	0%
Total					75,548,646,155					75,548,646,155

Municipal Water Demand Model

	Base				Scenario
Year	Growth (%)	Population Served	Average per capita Use (GPD)	Demand (GPD)	Growth (%)	Population Served	Average per capita use (GPD)	Demand (GPD)	Difference (GPD)	Percent Change
2010	1.217	3,466,349	143.900	498,807,621	*	3,466,349	*	498,807,621	0	0%
2015	1.266	3,691,395	143.900	531,191,741	*	3,691,395	*	531,191,741	0	0%
2020	1.244	3,926,784	143.900	565,064,218	*	3,926,784	*	565,064,218	0	0%
2025	1.185	4,165,026	143.800	598,930,739	*	4,165,026	*	598,930,739	0	0%
2030	1.112	4,401,809	143.900	633,420,315	*	4,401,809	*	633,420,315	0	0%
2035	1.046	4,636,890	143.800	666,784,782	*	4,636,890	*	666,784,782	0	0%
2040	1.017	4,877,521	143.700	700,899,768	*	4,877,521	*	700,899,768	0	0%
2045	1.026	5,132,925	143.500	736,574,738	*	5,132,925	*	736,574,738	0	0%
2050	1.035	5,404,110	143.500	775,489,785	*	5,404,110	*	775,489,785	0	0%
Total				5,707,163,705				5,707,163,705

Domestic Well Water Demand Model

	Base				Scenario
Year	Growth (%)	Population Served	Average per capita Use (GPD)	Demand (GPD)	Growth (%)	Population Served	Average per capita use (GPD)	Demand (GPD)	Difference (GPD)	Percent Change
2010	1.187	461,511	160.800	74,210,969	*	461,511	*	74,210,969	0	0%
2015	1.283	491,886	160.900	79,144,457	*	491,886	*	79,144,457	0	0%
2020	1.258	523,614	161.000	84,301,854	*	523,614	*	84,301,854	0	0%
2025	1.198	555,739	160.800	89,362,831	*	555,739	*	89,362,831	0	0%
2030	1.118	587,507	160.900	94,529,876	*	587,507	*	94,529,876	0	0%
2035	1.057	619,220	160.900	99,632,498	*	619,220	*	99,632,498	0	0%
2040	1.049	652,387	160.800	104,903,830	*	652,387	*	104,903,830	0	0%
2045	1.057	687,602	160.800	110,566,402	*	687,602	*	110,566,402	0	0%
2050	1.065	725,005	160.700	116,508,304	*	725,005	*	116,508,304	0	0%
Total				853,161,020				853,161,020

Industrial Demand Model

	Base		Scenario
Year	Growth (%)	Demand (GPD)	Growth (%)	Demand (GPD)	Difference (GPD)	Percent Change
2010	0	476,263,146	*	476,263,146	0	0%
2015	0	476,263,146	*	476,263,146	0	0%
2020	0	476,263,146	*	476,263,146	0	0%
2025	0	476,263,146	*	476,263,146	0	0%
2030	0	476,263,146	*	476,263,146	0	0%
2035	0	476,263,146	*	476,263,146	0	0%
2040	0	476,263,146	*	476,263,146	0	0%
2045	0	476,263,146	*	476,263,146	0	0%
2050	0	476,263,146	*	476,263,146	0	0%
Total		4,286,368,314		4,286,368,314

NOTE: The following parameters will be applied to every 5 year period in the model (2010, 2015, 2020... 2050)

	Base					Scenario
Crop	Starting Acres	Growth as Percent of Previous Acres	Water Used (inches/year)	Irrigation Efficiency (%)	Conveyance Efficiency (%)	Starting Acres	Growth as Percent of Previous Acres	Water Used (inches/year)	Irrigation Efficiency (% )	Conveyance Efficiency (%)
Wheat	105,694.7	101.190	17.629	57.686	80.000	*	*	*	*	*
Small Grains	66,141.9	101.190	16.379	67.798	80.000	*	*	*	*	*
Alfalfa & Other Hay	784,324.5	101.190	27.240	70.331	80.000	*	*	*	*	*
Pasture	471,771.7	101.190	26.668	52.795	80.000	*	*	*	*	*
Corn	84,461.4	101.190	20.261	72.913	80.000	*	*	*	*	*
Grass Seed	37,929.6	101.190	27.195	71.690	80.000	*	*	*	*	*
Horticulture	80,827.7	101.190	29.218	75.787	80.000	*	*	*	*	*
Tree Fruit & Nuts	53,851.3	101.190	23.359	74.987	80.000	*	*	*	*	*
Miscellaneous Crops	84,885.4	101.190	17.656	75.000	80.000	*	*	*	*	*
Grapes	8,982	101.190	10.100	90.000	80.000	*	*	*	*	*
Berries	18,014.5	101.190	18.741	73.686	80.000	*	*	*	*	*
Root Crops	44,385.5	101.190	26.799	75.000	80.000	*	*	*	*	*
Vegetables	33,274.8	101.190	16.753	73.487	80.000	*	*	*	*	*
Legumes	5,363.9	101.190	21.380	74.645	80.000	*	*	*	*	*
Livestock	18,786.4	101.190	12.000	100.000	80.000	*	*	*	*	*

View Model Results for:

Year	Base Acres	Base Demand (ac-ft)	Scenario Acres	Scenario Demand (ac-ft)
2010	1,921,289.8	7,683,738.65	1,921,289.8	7,683,738.65
2015	1,944,153.1	7,775,175.14	1,944,153.1	7,775,175.14
2020	1,967,288.5	7,867,699.73	1,967,288.5	7,867,699.73
2025	1,990,699.3	7,961,325.36	1,990,699.3	7,961,325.36
2030	2,014,388.6	8,056,065.13	2,014,388.6	8,056,065.13
2035	2,038,359.8	8,151,932.30	2,038,359.8	8,151,932.30
2040	2,062,616.3	8,248,940.30	2,062,616.3	8,248,940.30
2045	2,087,161.4	8,347,102.69	2,087,161.4	8,347,102.69
2050	2,111,998.7	8,446,433.21	2,111,998.7	8,446,433.21

About the Web based Water Demand Forecast Model

HDR originally created the spreadsheet water demand forecast model as part of the OWSCI project. This spreadsheet allows modelers very refined control over creating new scenarios. For a more simplified option, the Water Resources Department has created a web based Demand Forecasting tool. This web tool reduces the complexity of the spreadsheet model down to a handful of parameters that modelers can adjust to quickly identify their impact on future water demands. The web model uses the same basic principles and base data as the spreadsheet model, but it doesn't allow the fine adjustment and control offered by the spreadsheet.

The Web Water Demand Forecast Model base numbers do not exactly match the Spreadsheet base numbers

Because of the simplified approach to the models, using weighted averages of county values to determine state wide and basin parameters, plus a variety of rounding issues, you will discover that the Web and Spreadsheet base number do not exactly match. The web version does approximate the Spreadsheet trends and provides a good initial analysis. If you require a more exact and detailed analysis, please use the spreadsheet.

Using the Web Water Demand Forecast Model

Using the Web based Forecasting tool is fairly straightforward:

1. Select the area you wish to analyze.
2. Click on the tabs for each water demand type and change the values you wish to modify for your scenario.
3. Click the "Compute" button at the top of the screen to have the model re-computed. If you continue to change numbers, be sure to click the Compute button recompute when you are done.

Demand Forecast Qualifiers:

The "reference forecast" is intended to serve as a "check" against various user-defined scenarios. The input values assumed in the reference forecast are considered reasonable and any significant deviation from the input values used should be qualified or justified by the user.
Forecasts contain numbers that indicate accuracy out to 3 decimal places. This should not be taken as an indication of the accuracy of the result. Using the numbers to this level of accuracy was done to maintain consistency in the model.
Water demands are estimated as a total quantity without regard to supply systems or supply constraints. The fact that the model will forecast a future demand for a defined area is not an indication that water is available to meet that demand.
For additional qualifiers/model limitations, refer to HDR September 2008 report “Statewide Water Needs Assessment”, page 13.

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Oregon Water Resources Department OWSCI Water Demand Forecast Model

Oregon Water Resources Department
OWSCI Water Demand Forecast Model